Skift on the pivot to domestic travel
A short easy read that considers which countries might emerge winners if all outbound travel spend shifts to the domestic travel sector.
It takes the size of the domestic industry last year, adds to this the spend of that country’s nationals abroad (ie transfers that to domestic) then removes inbound spend. By that reckoning, Germany is set for a 10% growth, but France a 13% decline. Overall it forecasts Spain and the US and the biggest losers and UK and China as the biggest winners.
As highlighted at the end of the article, this doesn’t take into account non-spend, ie people who don’t even want to travel domestically this year. Nevertheless, it is a useful first articulation of what summer 2020 might look like.