Euromonitor webinar on implications of COVID-19 for the global economy

This 50-minute webinar and accompanying set of slides is pitched at those with a strong interest in broader macroeconomic issues thrown up by the coronavirus crisis.  The slides can be viewed on a standalone basis for those not wishing to listen to the webinar itself. 

The presentation contains at its core forecasts of global, regional and country-specific economic growth with a key assertion being that whereas at the start of January World GDP was expected to expand by 3.0% Euromonitor International now anticipate a decline of 3.1%. 

Eurozone economies are forecast to contract more than 7% in 2020 whereas a more upbeat prognosis for so-called ‘Emerging Economies’ of a 0.9% reduction is mooted. 

A lengthy discussion looks at comparisons with the 2008 financial crisis and suggests that the world entered the current downturn with a less robust ‘real’ economy but in many countries a more resilient financial sector.  

In addition to its base forecast three other potential scenarios are described all of which see a steeper decline in economic activity with the worst-case prediction being a 10% fall in global activity in 2020.  The variables determining the scenarios are the incidence and mortality rate for the virus, length of time social distancing is required and fiscal response measures.  In the baseline scenario social distancing is assumed to end by the close of 2020. 

The authors suggest that alleviating the economic impact will depend fiscal and monetary stimulus packages, effective treatments and/or a vaccine and a coordinated global response.   

Link to Euromonitor webinar on implications of COVID-19 for the global economy